What happens if a large, high-income economy, burdened with high levels of debt and an overvalued, fixed exchange rate, attempts to lower the debt and regain competitiveness? This question is of current relevance, since this is the challenge confronting Italy and Spain. Yet, as a chapter in the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook demonstrates, a relevant historical experience exists: that of the UK between the two world wars. This proves that the interaction between attempts at “internal devaluations” and the dynamics of debt are potentially lethal. Moreover, the plight of Italy and Spain is, in many ways, worse than the UK’s was. The latter, after all, could go off the gold standard; exit from the eurozone is far harder. Again, the UK had a central bank able and willing to reduce interest rates. The European Central Bank may not be able and willing to do the same for Italy and Spain.
如果有這樣一個高收入大型經濟體，它的債務水平很高，實行固定匯率制且本幣幣值被高估，而它企圖縮減債務規模并恢復競爭力，那會產生怎樣的后果？這一問題具有顯著的現實意義，因為這正是意大利和西班牙當前面臨的挑戰。不過，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)最新一期《世界經濟展望》(World Economic Outlook)的一個章節顯示，歷史上存在與此相關的案例：英國在兩次世界大戰之間那段時期遭遇過類似局面。該案例證明，“內部貶值”努力與債務變化態勢之間的相互作用可能是致命的。而且，意大利與西班牙目前所處的困境在很多方面都甚于英國當年。畢竟，英國當年可以選擇退出金本位；退出歐元區的難度則要大得多。此外，當時英國的央行有能力也有意愿下調利率；而歐洲央行(ECB)現在可能既無能力又無意愿為意大利和西班牙采取同樣的措施。