What has the market turmoil of August been telling us? The answer, I suggest, is three big things: first, the debt-encumbered economies of the high-income countries remain extremely fragile; second, investors have next to no confidence in the ability of policymakers to resolve the difficulties; and, third, in a time of high anxiety, investors prefer what are seen as the least risky assets, namely, the bonds of the most highly rated governments, regardless of their defects, together with gold. Those who fear deflation buy bonds; those who fear inflation buy gold; those who cannot decide buy both. But few investors or corporate managers wish to take on any longer-term investment risks.
8月份的市場動蕩告訴了我們什么？我認為答案是三件重要的事情：首先，高收入國家負債累累的經濟仍極度脆弱；其次，投資者對政策決策者解決這些難題的能力幾乎毫無信心；第三，在這種高度焦慮的時期，投資者更愿意持有普遍認為風險最低的資產，比如評級最高的政府所發行的債券——不論這些政府存在怎樣的缺陷——以及黃金。那些擔心通縮的投資者購買債券；害怕通脹的投資者買入黃金；舉棋不定的則兩者都買。但沒有什么投資者或企業管理者愿意承擔任何長期投資的風險。