Last year, the Bank of Japan surveyed its population about attitudes towards deflation. You might have thought this would paint a picture of pain, if not panic. After all, during most of the past decade, as Japanese prices gently drifted down, Western economists and policymakers have recoiled in horror; “deflation” has been a dirty word.
But Japanese consumers apparently feel rather differently. In last year’s survey, 44 per cent of Japanese said deflation was “favourable”, while a further 35 per cent felt neutral about the phenomenon – and just 20.7 per cent described it as “unfavourable”. Since then, the negative reaction has risen slightly. Nevertheless, that proportion remains low. Or as Kathy Matsui, an economist of Goldman Sachs, told a meeting at the International Monetary Fund in Washington last week: “More Japanese actually feel deflation is positive rather than a negative.”
This is thought-provoking stuff for investors; if not central banks. Right now, speculation is sky-high that the US Federal Reserve will soon unleash more quantitative easing, following signs that growth is slowing, unemployment rising – and that deflation might be rearing its head. European central bankers have also been fretting about deflation in the past three years. Might the experience of Japan suggest that this is an overreaction, at least in the eyes of voters? Or is this equanimity in itself, part of the problem?