China’s private entrepreneurs are shifting away from investments in favour of paying down dollar debt and keeping cash at hand to brace for an economic downturn exacerbated by the Trump administration’s trade tariffs.

China’s official third-quarter gross domestic product data, due on Friday, are expected to show economic growth holding close to the government’s target. But other data — such as a slide in the Caixin China manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, and in dollar bond issuance from non-state-owned groups — suggest the private sector is nervous.

Clients in China “are concerned about the ongoing slowdown in the economy”, “pessimistic about the outlook for the yuan” and “pessimistic that an increase in US tariffs from 10 per cent to 25 per cent in January can be averted”, Mansoor Mohi-uddin, NatWest Markets’ head of forex strategy, wrote after a visit to Beijing last week.