What lies ahead for the world economy in 2016? The good news is that it is almost certain to grow. Only a huge adverse shock — another global financial crisis or a war among great powers — would stop growth altogether. According to Consensus Forecasts, global growth is expected to be 2.8 per cent in 2016, up from 2.6 per cent in 2015. This forecast looks quite tolerable. But it hides important economic divergences and downside risks.

Virtually all high-income economies have returned to growth. The eurozone economy is forecast to grow 1.7 per cent in 2016, up from 1.5 per cent in 2015. The UK economy is forecast to grow by 2.3 per cent and the US economy by 2.5 per cent. Japan’s is forecast to grow 1.2 per cent in 2016, up from 0.6 per cent.

Asia (excluding Japan) is forecast to lead the world economy, once again, with growth of 5.7 per cent. India’s is expected to be the fastest-growing large economy in the world, with growth of 7.8 per cent in 2016, against 6.5 per cent in China. But Brazil and Russia are in recession: the former’s growth is forecast at minus 2.2 per cent in 2016, after minus 3.5 per cent in 2015. Russia’s growth is forecast at minus 0.2 per cent, against minus 3.8 per cent in 2015.