Well capitalised? Tick. Streamlining bearing fruit? Tick. Return on equity improving? Tick. Slight fudging of original cost-income targets apparently accepted by the market? Tick. Talk of returning capital if organic growth cannot be found? Lovely. Stuart Gulliver has so far ticked just about every box, at least in part, that could reasonably be expected of a big bank in this environment. Now to find that organic growth.

The chief executive of HSBC said in May he was open to returning more cash. On Monday, he was confident however that the growth would be there. From the perspective of where HSBC has been getting its profits from, it seems simple: pump more into Asia. Two-thirds of first-half pre-tax profits came from Hong Kong and the rest of the region. Hong Kong itself, with a fifth of the bank’s interest-bearing assets, is second only to the UK in size (a third) yet its pre-tax profit contribution this year so far has been nearly twice the size of the UK’s. The operative words, however, could be “so far”. HSBC’s own economists recently slashed Hong Kong growth forecasts to 2.5 per cent from 4.7 per cent this year after cutting Chinese forecasts by a tenth. The territory’s service sector activity has been shrinking for the past four months, albeit recently by a slower rate, while the mainland’s is barely growing. HSBC’s position in Hong Kong is so dominant that any slowing growth is unlikely to produce a one-for-one decline in its business because others will feel a harder hit. But the territory makes 10 times the profits for the bank of any other market in the region. The slightest slowing will be noticeable.