There is no sector of America’s economy that is more cyclical than housing. If it is pushed down far enough and long enough, as it was in the post-2008 housing depression, it will eventually snap back to levels that exceed historical norms. That turn in the market is occurring now and it should become a boom by 2015. It will be powerful enough, together with rising oil and gas production and other factors, to lift the entire US economy. Indeed, the resultant US economic growth rate may be higher than the Federal Reserve’s long-term forecast of 2-2.5 per cent.
美國經(jīng)濟中沒有比房地產(chǎn)更具周期性的行業(yè)了。如果房地產(chǎn)業(yè)能夠像2008年之后的樓市蕭條那樣，下行程度足夠深、時間足夠長的話，它就最終能夠反彈到超過歷史常態(tài)的水平。目前美國房地產(chǎn)市場正在反轉(zhuǎn)，它應該會在2015年再現(xiàn)繁榮。房地產(chǎn)繁榮再加上石油和天然氣產(chǎn)量不斷增長以及其他因素，將足以提振整個美國經(jīng)濟。實際上，由此導致的美國經(jīng)濟增長率可能會高于美聯(lián)儲2%到2.5%的長期增長預期。