Economic forecasters divide into two groups. There are those who cannot know the future but think they can – and then there are those who recognise their inability to know the future. Major shifts in the economy are rarely forecast and often not fully recognised until they have been under way for some time. So judgments about the US economy have to be tentative. What can be said is that for the first time in five years a resumption of growth significantly above the economy’s potential now appears a substantial possibility. Put differently, after years when growth was more likely to surprise below expectations than above them, the risks are now very much two-sided.
經濟預測者可以分為兩種，一種不知道未來會發生什么卻自以為知道，另一種則承認自己無法預知未來。人們很少能預測到經濟中的重大轉變，往往是在轉變已經進行了一段時間之后才能全面地認識到。因此對于美國經濟的判斷千萬不能武斷。現在可以確定的一點是：在長達五年的時間里，美國經濟增長率首次看起來大有希望重新恢復到遠遠超出潛在增速的水平。換言之，在前些年里，經濟增長往往只會出人意料地低于預期，而不是超過預期，如今則明顯具有雙向的可能性。