It is time to prepare for the unthinkable: there is now a significant probability the euro will not survive in its current form. This is not because I am predicting the failure by European leaders to agree a deal. In fact, I believe they will. My concern is not about failure to agree, but the consequences of an agreement. I am writing this column before the results of Sunday’s European summit were known. It appeared that a final agreement would not be reached until Wednesday. Under consideration has been a leveraged European financial stability facility, perhaps accompanied by new instruments from the International Monetary Fund.
眼下已到了做最壞打算的時候：歐元很可能無法以目前的形式存續下來。這并不是因為我預言歐洲領導人將無法達成某種協議。實際上，我認為他們會達成協議。我擔心的并不是達不成協議，而是協議所帶來的后果。在寫這篇專欄文章時，我并不知道周日歐盟峰會的結果。看起來，最終協議要到周三才能達成。考慮之中的方案是一種杠桿化的歐洲金融穩定安排(European Financial Stability Facility，簡稱EFSF)，或許再輔之以國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的某種新工具。