The political packaging of the new UK Budget is clear enough. It is about growth, and has a “Plan for Growth” at its heart. It also starts with projections for gross domestic product growth, which are less optimistic than they were, but which still forecast a return to a 2.9 per cent growth rate by the end of this government’s term. Subsidiary to this aim, with which almost nobody could disagree, comes fairness, in the form of frenzied tinkering to make life slightly easier for the poor and slightly tougher for the rich. Note that this tinkering, notably in the complicated and discontinuous new levy for North Sea oil producers, undermines a third key aim, simplicity.

While the political packaging makes sense, it points the arrow of causation the wrong way. Rather than a Budget for growth, it is a Budget that depends on growth. George Osborne, the chancellor, had tied his hands for this Budget by committing to austerity measures. Disappointing tax receipts have made his life still harder. And this Budget is fiscally neutral. So the most interesting ideas – such as finally merging the national insurance and income tax systems, or making deeper cuts to corporation tax – have to be deferred to the future, when they might be affordable.

If the expected growth does not arrive (as many economists currently fear), then lower tax receipts will limit the government’s ability to foment any fresh growth. What then can stimulate the economy?