Almost everywhere yesterday there was a landmark. The S&P 500 traded above 1,000 for the first time since election day, November 4. The FTSE emerging markets equity index reached above its close on September 12, the eve of the Lehman debacle. And the US dollar dropped to its lowest against a basket of currencies since Congress shocked world markets by voting down the first version of the bail-out for toxic assets on September 30.

Such optimism found support in the latest economic data. The ISM supply managers' survey in the US found manufacturers' sentiment almost back to its level of August last year, and far higher than at any other time since Lehman. The same was true of a similar survey for the eurozone. The guts of the ISM survey also helped the optimists. New orders exceeded inventories to the greatest extent since 1975, strong argument for the belief that the US will now see a “restocking boom” as production is stepped up to replenish inventories. But there is reason for disquiet in that the rally in risky assets is painfully reminiscent of the behaviour that preceded last year's crash. Then, as now, commodities, emerging market equities and high-yielding currencies validated and supported each other higher.

Then, as now, the dollar was the chief victim. Even though the latest news is good for the US economy, the dollar sold off heavily as investors left it for opportunities to take part in the global “recovery” trade. The inverse relationship between the dollar and risky assets is as strong as ever. It has now given up more than half of its gains since it hit bottom last July, just as the bubble of commodities and emerging markets was about to burst. Then, as now, the advance of relatively risky assets has been uniform, and undiscriminating.