A senior policymaker told me last week that the present situation reminded him of the 1992 crisis of Europe's exchange rate mechanism, when one country after another became subject to speculative attacks – leading to the expulsion of the UK and Italy from the system. In a monetary union, you can no longer bet on exchange rates. But thanks to credit default swaps, you can place convenient bets on the break-up of the eurozone. Last week, speculators bet on an Irish default, and these bets make it more expensive for Ireland to refinance its debt, thus threatening to turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
上周，一位高層決策人士告訴我，目前的形勢讓他想起了1992年歐洲匯率機制危機：當時歐洲各國接連遭受投機沖擊，導致英國和意大利退出歐洲貨幣體系。在一個貨幣同盟中，你無法再押注于匯率。但由于信用違約互換，你可以很方便地押注于歐元區解體。上周，投機者押注于愛爾蘭違約，這種押注提高了愛爾蘭為其債務進行再融資的成本，因此可能會成為一個自我實現的預言。