The first and obvious would be an expected persistent undershoot of the target itself. But I simply cannot see how this is possible. Of course, headline inflation rates will come down sharply next year and may turn briefly negative. But the trend will probably reverse again in the second half, when the sharp falls in oil and commodity prices are no longer in the index. For the eurozone, the ECB's own officials are forecasting annual inflation of between 1.1 per cent and 1.7 per cent next year and between 1.5 per cent and 2.1 per cent in 2010. These forecasts suggest that the ECB is more or less on target right now.
首先而且明顯的是，意料之中的各國央行一直未能射中靶子。但我完全不明白，這怎么可能。當然，整體通脹率明年將大幅下滑，并可能短暫降為負值。但明年下半年，趨勢可能再次逆轉，屆時，石油和大宗商品價格的急劇下跌不再計入指數。對于歐元區而言，歐洲央行自己的官方預測是，明年的年度通脹率將介于1.1%至1.7%之間，2010年將位于1.5%至2.1%之間。這些預測表明，歐洲央行現在或多或少已擊中目標。