The author is chair of Marshall Wace, a multi-strategy investment manager
The US equity market has greeted the US election result with a celebratory run. I share the optimism. On almost every dimension, the policy mix is positive for US equities — deregulation, tax cuts, lower energy costs. What is not to like? It is also being implemented against a background of falling interest rates.
The only caveats to this positive outlook are the following. First, tariffs and immigration control are both inflationary and so the rate-cutting cycle will probably be shallower. The markets already revised up the level at which US rates will settle in this cycle from 3.4 per cent to 3.75 per cent in the run-up to the election.
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