Ukraine has all but disappeared from the headlines. The annexation of Crimea by Russia five years ago is now accepted internationally as a hard reality. Russian partisans hold two major cities in the east but, as Ian Bond notes in a paper for the Centre for European Reform, the country has not broken apart. The economy has picked up from the depths of the crisis in 2014, and some efforts have been made to reduce endemic corruption.

The situation, however, is far from stable and there is no room for indifference. The presidential election at the end of March could produce an outcome that reverses many of these gains, and that could lead to an unexpected shift in the European gas market.

On the latest published opinion polls President Petro Poroshenko and former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko are trailing comedian Volodymyr Zelensky. But there are 44 candidates in the field and everything will depend on who reaches the final run-off.