If a speculator-loathing central bank were planning a victory celebration, it could do worse than make its currency free to borrow offshore, while pushing its exchange rate to its strongest this year.
That, in effect was what happened to the renminbi last week, whether or not the People’s Bank of China intended it. The end of a quarter that began with hedge funds and others making big bets against the Chinese currency finished with short-term renminbi borrowing rates in Hong Kong turning negative for a day — the first such event — and the onshore rate being fixed at its strongest rate since mid-December.
Between the height of renminbi drama in early January, when China bears felt vindicated by a sharp weakening in the offshore rate, and now investors have faced a formidable adversary in the form of the PBoC. The central bank has intervened in the onshore and offshore currency markets, introduced new bank capital requirements and drawn heavily on its reserves.