The 9 percent drop in global equity prices in the first two weeks of 2016 is certainly alarming, even for those of us who believe that the outlook for the world activity has not deteriorated much recently. The fundamental cause is the same as it was last August – a clash between a severe loss of credibility in Chinese economic policy and a Federal Reserve that still seems determined to continue tightening US monetary policy without much regard to international risks and a slowing domestic economy (see the hawkish Bill Dudley speech on Friday). Oil prices are also playing a part, but only a bit part, in my view.
在2016年的頭兩周內，全球股市下跌9%，這當然是令人震驚的，即使是對于我們中那些認為世界經濟活動前景近來并未大幅惡化的人來說也是如此。根本原因與去年8月股災的原因一樣，在于這樣一個矛盾：一方面是中國經濟政策的可信度嚴重下降，另一方面是美聯儲似乎仍然決心繼續收緊美國貨幣政策，而不太考慮國際風險和國內經濟放緩（參見上周五鷹派的比爾?達德利(Bill Dudley)發表的演講）。油價也起到了部分作用，但是，依我看來，只起到了一小部分作用。