Ever since the Ukraine crisis erupted, there have been two levers available to western powers as they try to contain Russia’s aggression against its neighbour. The first has been to ratchet up the penalties on Vladimir Putin’s government by means of economic sanctions. The second has been to do everything possible to shore up the Ukrainian economy which continues to be at risk of collapse.
In the next few days the focus of international attention will once again be on whether to punish Russia. Following last night’s summit in Minsk to try and agree a ceasefire in Donetsk and Lugansk, the west may have to decide whether more sanctions are needed to contain Moscow’s aggression. But whatever the outcome, the US and its allies need to do far more to support the Ukrainian economy. All the signs are that the latest efforts by the International Monetary Fund and donor countries are not going to be big enough.
Ukraine’s economy remains in a dire state, a situation exacerbated by the fighting in the east of the country which has brought production crashing at coal mines and steel mills. Real GDP shrank 8 per cent between the fourth quarter of 2013 and the third quarter of last year. Foreign currency reserves plunged to $6.6bn in December 2014, or about one month’s imports — well below the three months considered a prudent minimum. The hryvnia has collapsed, which will lead to a spike in inflation and reduced living standards.