The outcome of next week’s referendum on Scottish independence is suddenly, and worryingly, unpredictable. Until a few days ago most observers took the view that, for all the sound and fury of the campaign, there was no chance of Scotland breaking from the rest of the UK. Now, nine days before the vote, complacency has been dispelled. On Sunday a YouGov opinion poll was the first to put the Yes campaign ahead. Yesterday sterling slumped to a 10-month low and shares in Scottish-based banks and insurers fell sharply. In places far beyond Edinburgh and London, people are starting to take a long, hard look at what Scottish independence would mean.
突然之間，下周蘇格蘭獨立公投的結果變得難以預測，這一動態令人擔憂。直到幾天前，多數觀察人士還認為，雖然蘇獨運動鬧得沸沸揚揚，但蘇格蘭與英國其余地區分離的概率為零。如今，就在距公投還有9天之時，這種自滿情緒被驅散了。上周日，尤戈夫(YouGov)民調結果顯示，蘇獨陣營首次處于領先位置。昨日，英鎊匯率驟跌至10個月低點，總部位于蘇格蘭的銀行和保險公司的股價也急劇下滑。蘇格蘭獨立到底意味著什么？人們開始對這個問題展開認真的思考，而思考這個問題的人絕不止是那些在愛丁堡和倫敦的人。