“Sell in May and go away” has long been a popular – if overused – mantra for equity market investors in the western world.
But China works to a different calendar, one where the lunar new year often marks the start of a sell-off, while the third quarter presents an opportunity to buy back in.
Though imprecise, such a pattern has emerged in Chinese equities in the years since the financial crisis. In each of the past four years, the MSCI China index has suffered protracted first-half falls – ranging from 32 per cent in 2011 to 10 per cent in 2012. But rallies have followed during the second, with typical gains of about 30 per cent.
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