If China’s property markets are about to go juddering into the abyss, has anyone let the mining industry know? Er, maybe, yes. Iron ore prices have quietly fallen a quarter so far in 2014. China-exposed Fortescue of Australia is yours for four times forward earnings. And yet BHP Billiton, a much bigger iron ore producer, remains priced at 12 times.
Rio Tinto, a big miner even more exposed to iron ore, is at 10. Investors must think scale will be the key to survival in a Chinese property crash. That attitude may be clever, or stupid. How about applying this theory to Chinese property developers themselves?
The abyss yawns. Double the amount of land has been sold within China in the past three years than in 2007, 2008 and 2009 – when China’s local governments financed one of the great fiscal stimuluses in history with the proceeds. No stimulus in sight now; just urban residential floor space under construction of 5.7bn square metres at the end of 2013, five times annual sales.