The confrontation between Russia and the west over Ukraine imperils the Russian economy, but the problem runs both ways. Russia’s pre-existing economic malaise also explains why the country is vulnerable to an international crisis.

The trouble is not the oil price, which for now remains at the high level that has propelled Russia’s economy for the past decade. Rather, the problem is that the Ukraine crisis has arisen just at the moment when economic growth in Russia has come to depend more heavily than ever on capital-intensive industrial investment.

Put another way, Russia’s present economic problems are structural rather than cyclical, even if some cyclical factors such as recession and stagnation in the eurozone – by far Russia’s largest trading partner – have added to the gloom. Ironically, the European slowdown has dealt a much more serious blow to Ukraine’s economy than to Russia’s, and must be reckoned among the underlying causes of the events that have contributed to the present crisis.