Luxury brands are meant to exude an air of cool, considered, unruffled sophistication. Burberry’s shares do just the opposite. On Wednesday, the company’s latest trading update contained no changes to either underlying earnings guidance or strategy. No matter. The shares rose 5 per cent in response to this lack of news. The move reflected some relief that people in China are still keen on upmarket trenchcoats.
There is something about Burberry that makes its shares susceptible to nervousness around trading updates. Since mid 2012 the shares have moved by an average of 7 per cent every time the company has said something about its progress. Strip out September and October 2012, when there was a bout of extreme nervousness, and the average move is still more than 4 per cent. So Wednesday’s rise is nothing out of the ordinary.
Over the longer term, though, Burberry’s shares are not so excitable. Before Wednesday they were up 6 per cent in a year, which is a middling performance for a luxury group – ahead of Kering and LVMH, behind Salvatore Ferragamo and bang in line with Hermès. Its rating of 18 times forecast earnings is also middling for the sector. So sure, be relieved that trading in China is not deteriorating. But history suggests that the daily noise such relief has generated will not necessarily be the start of a rally in the share price.