Since the onset of the financial crisis, Germany has found itself envied for its economic success. It boasts one of the continent’s lowest unemployment rates and an almost balanced budget. It is also Europe’s manufacturing powerhouse, with a current account surplus that rivals China’s. But ahead of federal elections next month there are signs of complacency: manufacturing is in danger of losing its edge, and none of the big political parties are addressing the causes in their election platforms.

Germany’s manufacturing success is a rare combination of good luck and side-effects from past economic reforms. The country has benefited enormously from its historic strengths in capital goods, luxury cars and chemicals exactly matching demand from fast-growing emerging markets. In addition, the labour market reforms of Gerhard Schr?der’s government at the start of the century have led to strong wage restraint, increasing the sector’s price competitiveness. Finally, Germany’s success has been helped by the co-operative mood between employers and workers. French manufacturing managers look with envy at how easily their German counterparts can ask their workforce for flexibility over working hours in order to provide for customer wishes and swift after-sales service.

The factors behind these successes are now under pressure. Economic growth in emerging markets has slowed. Beijing is trying to rebalance the Chinese economy from an investment-driven growth model to a consumption-driven one. In Europe, investment remains weak. All this translates into lower demand for German goods abroad.