Is it the right time to fire Shinzo Abe’s fourth arrow? There has been so much emphasis on arrows number one to three that many have forgotten about the fourth altogether. This entails doubling the consumption tax in two stages, starting in April next year, to 10 per cent. By some accounts, the fourth arrow, the opening shot in an effort to repair Japan’s finances after years of deficits, is the most important of all. Deciding when to fire it could be the trickiest decision the prime minister has had to make.

First, the story so far. Soon after he came to power in December, Mr Abe released arrow number one: a $110bn stimulus package, worth 2 per cent of gross domestic product, to upgrade roads and bridges. Arrow number two, shot with the most fanfare, was a pledge to escape years of deflation, backed up with the appointment of a central bank governor definitively committed to a 2 per cent inflation target. Arrow number three, which many consider the flimsiest, is a bevy of structural reforms aimed at lifting the long-term growth rate. Strictly speaking, the fourth arrow – doubling the consumption tax – is part of arrow number one. Mr Abe has promised not an expansionary fiscal policy but a “flexible” one. If he presses ahead now with legislation to raise consumption tax (initially to 8 per cent) from next April, we will know what “flexible” means: fiscal expansion followed by contraction. The question for Mr Abe is whether this is the right approach.

The consensus among those paying attention is that it most certainly is. More, they see it as Mr Abe’s test by fire. If “Abenomics” is to be taken seriously, they argue, the prime minister must not balk at this vital first step in repairing Japan’s crumbling finances.