Why are the high-income countries not mired in deflation? This is the puzzle today, not the absence of the hyperinflation that hysterics have wrongly expected. It is weird that inflation has remained so stable, despite huge shortfalls in output, relative to pre-crisis trends, and prolonged high unemployment. Understanding why this is the case is important because the answer determines the correct policy action. Fortunately, the news is good. The stability of inflation seems to be a reward for the credibility of inflation targeting. That gives policy makers room to risk expansionary policies. Ironically, the success of inflation targeting has revitalised Keynesian macroeconomic stabilisation.
為什么高收入國(guó)家沒有陷入通貨緊縮的泥潭？這才是今天的待解之謎，而不是為什么惡性通貨膨脹沒有出現(xiàn)——一些歇斯底里的人曾錯(cuò)誤地預(yù)測(cè)會(huì)出現(xiàn)惡性通脹。奇怪的是，盡管相對(duì)于危機(jī)之前的趨勢(shì)水平，經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出已大幅下降，失業(yè)率也長(zhǎng)期居高不下，通脹卻一直保持穩(wěn)定。理解為什么會(huì)出現(xiàn)這種情況非常重要，因?yàn)榇鸢笡Q定了能否采取正確的政策行動(dòng)。幸運(yùn)的是，我們有好消息。穩(wěn)定的通脹似乎是對(duì)通脹目標(biāo)可信度的一種嘉獎(jiǎng)。于是政策制定者就有了采取擴(kuò)張性政策的冒險(xiǎn)空間。具有諷刺意味的是，通脹目標(biāo)的成功賦予了凱恩斯主義宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定政策新的活力。