A nice easy question: is the US economy growing or shrinking? The majority view, to simplify slightly, is that increasing employment and rising house prices must amount to an expansion. Dissident pessimists have a more complicated story. The current indicators of industrial production, personal income and sales appeared to have peaked in July 2012, falling for the subsequent three months. But the first two then rebounded strongly in November. Only employment is on a clear upward trend, and it has been known to lag behind the others. Leading indicators are divided too. Building permits are up and initial unemployment claims, while not falling as fast as they were, are easing off. Yet manufacturers’ new orders are weakening and other indicators are moving sideways.

Real-world investors who fall into the bullish camp will be wanting to place their bets. So here is a nice liquid vehicle for the wager: Google. It is easy to forget that Google is cyclical, because while it is in a super-cyclical industry – advertising – it is also in a part of this industry that is taking market share. Digital advertising spending has grown 10-fold in the past decade, according to PwC data. Despite this secular tailwind, though, Google’s revenue growth bottomed at 3 per cent in the second quarter of 2009. The stock performed just as badly as the wider market in the 2007-09 rout (and has outperformed since).

Google stock is already priced for expansion. After a disappointing third quarter hit the company’s share price, it has rebounded strongly and is near all-time highs. Revenue growth (excluding foreign exchange and the Motorola acquisition) has been 25 per cent in recent quarters. Analyst estimates reflect the expectation for only a modest slowdown in the year to come and for earnings per share growth to proceed apace. But if the economy delivers, Google’s rating (16 times 2013 earnings estimates) is very attractive, considering its fortress-like position in its core markets. Economic prognosticators, step right up.