A nice easy question: is the US economy growing or shrinking? The majority view, to simplify slightly, is that increasing employment and rising house prices must amount to an expansion. Dissident pessimists have a more complicated story. The current indicators of industrial production, personal income and sales appeared to have peaked in July 2012, falling for the subsequent three months. But the first two then rebounded strongly in November. Only employment is on a clear upward trend, and it has been known to lag behind the others. Leading indicators are divided too. Building permits are up and initial unemployment claims, while not falling as fast as they were, are easing off. Yet manufacturers’ new orders are weakening and other indicators are moving sideways.
一個很簡單的問題：美國經濟是增長還是萎縮？大多數觀點認為，（稍微簡單化一點來說）就業增加和房價上升必定意味著擴張。持不同意見的悲觀者則將此看得更為復雜。目前的工業生產、個人收入及銷售額指標看起來已在2012年7月見頂，此后三個月連續下滑。但前兩者在11月強勢反彈。唯有就業率呈明顯上升趨勢，但該指標一向滯后于其他指標。先行指標也發出不同信號。建造許可數量上升，初期的失業金申請數量正在放緩（雖然沒有前一階段下降得那樣快）。然而，制造商新訂單正在趨緩，其他指標則飄忽不定。