Markets are bad at valuing low-probability extreme events. Put differently, investors often respond to a radical increase in uncertainty with panic. It is hard to stand still when the Middle East is in turmoil or when there is the risk of a Japanese nuclear catastrophe, let alone both simultaneously. Usually it is clever to get well in front of a stampede. But mass movement of money is a dangerous business.
市場在評(píng)估低概率極端事件方面，表現(xiàn)向來不佳。換言之，對于不確定性的驟增，投資者往往做出恐慌的反應(yīng)。當(dāng)中東陷入動(dòng)蕩、或日本有可能發(fā)生核災(zāi)難之際，人們很難保持平靜，更遑論兩種情況同時(shí)出現(xiàn)。通常，在別人四散逃離時(shí)保持鎮(zhèn)定是明智之舉。但大量挪動(dòng)資金則是一件危險(xiǎn)的事情。
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