The fight for freedom in the Middle East and north Africa seems to be spreading. For traders, the current fight is more relevant than the possible eventual freedom. The violent suppression of riots in Libya led to a 2.5 per cent increase in the price of Brent crude on Monday. The shares of the Italy’s ENI and Austria’s OMV, oil companies active in the country, both fell by 5 per cent – despite reporting no interruption in production.

This is not the first time oil has surged at news of governmental weakness in the region. Still, the strong upward trend started long before Arab dictators started to look vulnerable. Political risk may have pushed the price of crude higher than it would have been otherwise, but there is no way to tell.

The case for calm is strong. To start, old and new governments share an interest in keeping the oil and gas flowing. Were rebels to disrupt production facilities or pipelines, they could lose public support. Civil war, as has been threatened in Libya, is another matter, but total production in all the countries where protests have been most intense (Tunisia, Yemen, Egypt, Libya and Bahrain) only accounts for 3.4 per cent of global supply. Even if much of this disappeared suddenly, there is probably enough spare capacity around the world to compensate.