Yet again, we hear the cry of the old economic religion: repent before it is too late; the wages of fiscal sin is death. But is it already time to retrench? I doubt it. At least, we must recognise the risks: delayed retrenchment poses the danger of inflation and even default; premature retrenchment threatens recession and even deflation, as I argued last week. Having barely survived the biggest financial meltdown in history, we need to appreciate that these downside risks are serious.
又一次，我們聽到了舊經濟信條的呼喊：在一切已太晚之前悔悟吧；財政錯誤的代價將是滅亡。但現在已到了緊縮的時候嗎？我對此表示懷疑。至少，我們必須認識到以下風險：緊縮舉措出臺 太晚，會帶來通脹甚至違約的危險；而過早地緊縮，則會導致經濟衰退乃至通縮，我在上周已論證過這一問題。剛剛從有史以來最嚴重的金融災難中死里逃生的我們，必須認識到這些下行風險不容小覷。
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