Policymakers have responded to successive economic downturns in essentially the same Keynesian way since the 1950s. Fiscal deficits have been allowed to rise and interest rates to fall to stimulate aggregate demand. Though Keynes hardly anticipated such repeated use of macro instruments, these policies have worked. As a result, the policy response to the current crisis has been “more of the same”. Many policymakers remain confident that this will eventually generate a sustained recovery. Yet it is worth reflecting on why it might not work this time, and what other public policies might help foster recovery. In short, what is Plan B?
自上世紀(jì)50年代以來，政策制定者應(yīng)對接連不斷的經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷的方式，本質(zhì)上都是同樣的凱恩斯(Keynes)主義。他們允許財政赤字?jǐn)U大，并通過降息刺激總需求。盡管凱恩斯幾乎沒有預(yù)見到宏觀工具會被如此重復(fù)地使用，但這些政策的確奏效了。因此，當(dāng)前這場危機(jī)的應(yīng)對政策“幾乎大同小異”。許多政策制定者仍然相信，這些政策最終將創(chuàng)造持續(xù)的復(fù)蘇。不過，我們有必要反思一下，為何它們這次有可能失效，以及還有什么其它公共政策可能有助于推動復(fù)蘇。簡言之，什么是B計劃（即“備用方案”）？