Argentina's default in 2001 didn't come out of the blue. Nor did Lehman's collapse. Yet both caused shockwaves. Now it may be Dubai's turn. Investors fear that a debt standstill by Dubai World, the city kingdom's largest state-owned conglomerate, is a prelude to a forced restructuring of its estimated $60bn of liabilities. This has caused a repricing of risk both in and beyond the Gulf. Bank share prices took a pummelling yesterday. HSBC, down 5 per cent, was among the worst hit, given its estimated $16bn exposure to the United Arab Emirates. The dollar and bunds rose.
阿根廷2001年的違約并非毫無(wú)前兆。雷曼(Lehman)破產(chǎn)也是如此。但兩者都對(duì)市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生了沖擊。現(xiàn)在或許輪到迪拜了。投資者擔(dān)心，迪拜最大國(guó)有集團(tuán)迪拜世界(Dubai World)暫停償債，是其大約600億美元債務(wù)被迫重組的序曲。人們不得不對(duì)海灣區(qū)內(nèi)外的國(guó)家的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行重新定價(jià)。銀行股股價(jià)昨日大幅下挫。鑒于在阿聯(lián)酋大約160億美元的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口，匯豐(HSBC)成為受沖擊最為嚴(yán)重的一家銀行，股價(jià)下跌5%。美元和德國(guó)國(guó)債則出現(xiàn)上漲。