The auto trade is becoming a tale of two industries: carmakers that benefit from cash-for-clunkers schemes, and those that don't. Contrast BMW, whose BMW-brand deliveries fell 9 per cent in the third quarter, with the continuing buoyant total car sales figures in Germany and France. The problem for BMW and luxury rivals is these scrappage schemes are mainly encouraging consumers to buy small, cheap cars. So French car sales jumped 20 per cent year-on-year in October – the sixth month of that kind of increase – as consumers took advantage of France's scheme before its December expiry. But the big gainers were Peugeot, Renault and Ford, which on Monday announced a surprise quarterly profit. In Germany, October new car registrations were up 24 per cent, though its scrappage scheme ran out in September, as cars ordered under the scheme are still being delivered.

BMW provides a salutary reminder of what the rest of the industry would look like if no one had had the idea of paying consumers to junk their old cars and of the “cold turkey” to come once the incentives party ends. Ford, notably, warned of the “high likelihood of a substantial decrease” in European volumes in 2010. Ironically, BMW and its peers may enjoy a more solid recovery, once it comes, as luxury demand has not been pulled forward in the same way that it has for smaller vehicles.

Other headwinds, however, could partially counteract that effect. BMW says the euro may strengthen further against the dollar and sterling, causing problems in two key markets, with offsetting price increases difficult to push through – though the launch of several new models will help. That makes the recent run-up in its shares to almost €36, or 22 times 2010 earnings, premature. After yesterday's 6 per cent fall to €31.50, the price more fairly reflects the outlook.