This used to be Game Over: one of the big three miners would announce the price at which it would sell iron ore to a big steelmaker for the coming year. The rest of the industry would then shrug and fall in behind them. But Rio Tinto's settlement on Tuesday with Nippon Steel, swiftly followed by deals with Kobe Steel, JFE and Sumitomo, may not be the end of this story.

For one, the customers are Japanese. In 2007 and 2008, the first announced settlement was with a Chinese steelmaker. That was as it should be: China imported 444m tonnes of seaborne iron ore last year, more than Japan and Europe together. China's Iron & Steel Association has consistently said it wants a cut of about 45 per cent, compared to the 33 per cent Rio has just agreed in Japan.

For another, the first settlement means less than it used to. Last year Vale unilaterally declared in mid-February with a 65 per cent hike. Rio took the extraordinary step of saying it could do better – and did, securing an 85 per cent rise. Increasingly, producers are acting independently, pushing volumes on to the spot market, which is now used for a third of all trade in seaborne iron ore, up from zero a few years ago. The increasing popularity of more flexible hybrid contracts is another sign of the settlement's waning importance.