And indeed, we as a profession are making our voices heard in a way we never get the chance to do when the credit is flowing, businesses are investing and consumers buying what business wants to sell. Then, we make arguments based on data, otherwise known as “facts”, processed through regression analysis and logical rigour, which few humans read. (I know, I am an economics journal editor.) Now, on the other hand, we call for trillion dollar stimulus plans on the basis of little more than citing John Maynard Keynes – and politicians revere us. Citing Keynes gives us special licence to talk economics without using any. To paraphrase the lawyers' dictum, when the facts are on our side, we pound the facts; when theory is on our side, we pound theory; and when neither the facts nor theory are on our side, we pound Keynes – and to great effect.
的確，作為一項(xiàng)職業(yè)，我們正讓自己的聲音被大家聽(tīng)到，而在信貸通暢、企業(yè)樂(lè)于投資、消費(fèi)者樂(lè)于購(gòu)買的時(shí)期，我們從未有這樣的機(jī)會(huì)。然后，我們依據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)提出觀點(diǎn)，這些數(shù)據(jù)也被稱作“事實(shí)”，我們會(huì)運(yùn)用回歸分析和嚴(yán)格邏輯對(duì)其進(jìn)行加工處理，幾乎沒(méi)有人看得懂計(jì)算過(guò)程。（我知道這點(diǎn)，因?yàn)槲沂且幻?jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)刊物主編。）另一方面，我們幾乎是單純以凱恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)的理論為依據(jù)，呼吁上萬(wàn)億美元的刺激計(jì)劃，而政界人士尊敬我們。引用凱恩斯理論給了我們無(wú)需引用其它理論即可討論經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的特權(quán)。套用律師的格言：當(dāng)事實(shí)在我們這邊時(shí)，我們打事實(shí)牌；當(dāng)理論在我們這邊時(shí)，我們打理論牌；而當(dāng)事實(shí)和理論都不在我們這邊時(shí)，我們打凱恩斯牌——而且收到很好的效果。