Yet within those overall figures, there are huge variations. According to Zhang Shuxiao, an estate agent at 21st Century in Xian, a large industrial city in central China: “There is no bubble here like there is in Shanghai or Beijing. The market is very stable without any significant increases or price drops.” However, in Chengdu, in south-western China, big problems are developing. “Prices have dropped 20 per cent in the last year, especially for new apartments,” says Li Qian at Shunchi Real Estate Agency in the city. “It could take two or three years before they come back.” Similar stories of plunging prices are beginning to appear in a number of big cities. Meanwhile, several other indicators point to a slowing property market. Sales have declined and floor area under construction fell in August, while production of steel, cement and air conditioners was flat or down in the month – another sign of weak activity. Analysts say that mortgage approvals have also dropped sharply in recent months. “We believe the likelihood of a property sector meltdown in China is high,” says Jerry Lou, an analyst at Morgan Stanley in Shanghai.
大多數經濟學家認為，中國發生大范圍拖欠抵押貸款的幾率比許多國家都要低，因為中國購房者以儲蓄支付的比例相對較高。一位駐北京的經濟學家表示：“中國家庭會盡一切力量避免失去房子。”其他人還提到了潛在需求依然強勁的跡象。過去兩周內，許多房地產開發商對新房大幅打價出售，引起了買家的濃厚興趣。