When asked what they think about the economy, the British public can sometimes be horribly blunt. In a YouGov survey after November’s Budget, three in four people thought the government was managing the economy badly. Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ statement landed badly with four in five business leaders surveyed by the Institute of Directors. And Ipsos Mori reported that the proportion of people who thought that she was doing a good job was lower than that of those who still approved of Kwasi Kwarteng after the disastrous “mini” Budget of September 2022. These views will be compounded by Friday’s economic data showing the UK economy contracted for the second consecutive month in October.

I have no doubt that these feelings are honestly expressed. But is it really true that the UK economy is unhealthy, as 79 per cent of the public think? Or that it will be in a worse state in a year’s time, as nearly two-thirds believe? Might this pessimism in fact become a self-fulfilling prophecy — leading to the nation no longer being able to rely on the British consumer’s desire to shop?

Normally, I would dismiss such theories, but some compelling new Bank of England data has made me change my mind. In a revealing new spreadsheet, officials have compiled a series of all their previous forecasts since 2007, making it easy to gauge their accuracy.