When Donald Trump won the US presidential election in 2016 America’s allies around the world reacted with consternation and shock. They will have no such excuse if he wins again in November. His victory in the New Hampshire primary makes him the all but inevitable presidential nominee for the Republican party. An unpredictable isolationist could well return to the White House. Trump’s effective locking up of the nomination so quickly at least gives US allies nearly a year to prepare for that possibility.

Not all world leaders are upset at the idea of a second Trump term. It is not just that autocrats such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and tyrants such as Russia’s Vladimir Putin would welcome it. Many of the so-called middle powers steering a path between China and America, in particular developing economies, are at least sanguine — a view shared by some in Beijing too.

Some officials in south-east Asia, for example, suggest it may be easier to deal with the “transactional” and decisive Trump than with the more strategic Joe Biden. Others, including in the Middle East and Africa, say they will not miss the “l(fā)ectures” of the current administration, though they may find out that lectures were preferable to neglect.