Donald Trump has recently notched up an impressive roll of investment pledges from companies as he attempts to turn the US into a manufacturing powerhouse. Last week, the chief of semiconductor giant Nvidia hinted at ploughing “several hundred billion” dollars into the country over the next four years. Multinational carmaker Stellantis, Japanese brewer Asahi, and South Korea’s automaker Hyundai have all recently unveiled plans for new US production. The White House proudly claims that “the list of manufacturing wins is endless”.

The self-congratulation is premature. The Trump administration will find that there is a limit to how much investment it can attract, particularly if it persists with its central strategy of trying to prod businesses into the country with tariffs.

For starters, the lead time to build a factory is often several years long. That means the costly decision to shift production to the US depends partly on how long businesses reckon the current protectionist stance will last. But companies have no clarity on what Trump’s plans to implement reciprocal tariffs next week looks like, let alone what US policy will be in a few years. With Trump’s import duties affecting numerous raw materials, such as aluminium and steel, producers will also wonder if domestic supply chains will be strong enough to meet their demand.