The writer is professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley
There is now a conventional narrative in the markets about the short- and medium-term prospects of the dollar.
In the short run the dollar will continue to strengthen, as an unprecedented confluence of domestic and foreign forces push it up. Foreign exchange traders are focused on Donald Trump imposing tariffs on his return to the White House. His latest blast on his social media channel Truth Social suggests plans for tariffs of 25 per cent on imports from Canada and Mexico, and an extra 10 per cent on China.
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