The writer is a senior fellow and director of the Africa programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International PeaceIt is often said that Africa does not matter to America. Unlike China, the US does not pursue a policy of exporting surplus industrial capacity to low-income regions of the world. Accounting for less than 2 per cent of US global commerce, Africa remains more the target of aid programming than an economic priority for Washington. 

This is the context in which to consider the future of the US trade programme, the African Growth and Opportunity Act. Agoa provides duty-free access to the US market for exports across 1,800 product lines from eligible African countries. It is meant to help increase trade and investment with the continent, promote sustainable economic growth and encourage the rule of law and market-oriented reforms. Because the programme expires in 2025, there are discussions under way as to whether it should be reauthorised or left to quietly die. 

The idea of allowing Agoa to expire is not as unpopular as one might think. Since the programme’s launch in 2000, Africa’s minuscule share of US global trade has barely budged. The aggregate US-Africa trade volume reached a peak of $142bn in 2008 and has been declining since, falling to $72bn in 2022. Given this trend, some argue that Agoa should be replaced by a few bilateral trade agreements with countries such as Kenya and South Africa.