For the past two-and-a-half years, Citigroup has sat on the sidelines while its Wall Street rivals have taken full control of their investment banking units in China, advising on listings and running sales and trading businesses in the world’s second-biggest economy. Last month, China’s regulator, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, conditionally approved a licence for Citi to follow suit and set up its own investment banking operation in the country, in addition to the corporate and commercial banking operations it already has. But, since Citi first applied for that licence in December 2021, much has changed.

Other global banks have reported sharp falls in the profits of their Chinese investment banking entities and are becoming more cautious about doing business in the country. Citi itself has shifted its priorities and announced a major restructuring. China’s growth has slowed, and tensions with the US have risen, making expansion look less lucrative and more complicated. 

“They have seen the harsh economics faced by their peers”, said Han-Shen Lin, China country head at advisory consultancy The Asia Group. The question, Lin said, was whether Citi would maintain the “minimum capability required” to operate an investment banking unit in the country, “or whether they will go all-in”.