Fertiliser and crop prices have fallen sharply since their peaks after last year’s Russian attack on Ukraine. Yet agriculture specialists and analysts have warned that the world’s food supplies are still under threat.

Food prices were already elevated before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine early last year, due to droughts and coronavirus pandemic-related hoarding by governments and businesses. Then crop nutrient prices soared as a result of Moscow’s position as the world’s largest fertiliser exporter, while the jump in natural gas prices, a critical ingredient for nitrogen fertilisers, also piled pressure onto agricultural markets.

Last year’s Black Sea grain deal between Moscow and Kyiv played a crucial role in subduing prices, along with plentiful supplies from Russia, while lower natural gas prices have calmed fertiliser markets. However, analysts warn the grain deal could unravel, while volatile energy prices and climate change also threaten to undermine crop production.