The writer is an FT contributing editor and global chief economist at Kroll

It may be the most anticipated recession in history. Economists have been forecasting contraction for the US economy since at least April, shortly after the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates. But a bit like Godot, it has yet to show up. Credit the cash cushion American consumers and corporations built during the pandemic. But that will eventually disappear, and then the economy will nosedive.

In 2020 and 2021, generous unemployment insurance benefits, stimulus cheques and child tax credit payments helped households squirrel away roughly $2.3tn in excess savings — the amount above what they would have saved had there been no pandemic. This powered a surge in demand as the economy reopened (fuelling upward pressure on inflation). October retail sales posted their strongest gain in eight months. Consumption accounts for more than two-thirds of US gross domestic product growth, and so far spending has remained strong.