It may be too late to ask whether this year’s trade and manufacturing weakness will spill over into consumer spending in emerging markets next year. It already has.
The widely-held view among investors that the consumer remained resilient this year amid a sharp slowdown in global trade and investment does not stack up on a global level. According to economists at UBS, global consumption has already slowed, with EMs accounting for the vast majority of the deceleration.
Further policy support across EMs will be needed in 2020 to prop up flagging domestic demand.
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