As officials gather in Washington DC for this week’s annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank, the mood on global growth prospects is understandably gloomy. The advanced economies have been hit by major shocks in their trade and manufacturing sectors, and the impact is beginning to permeate the service sectors and labour markets.
According to the latest Fulcrum nowcasts, overall activity growth in these major economies is running at only 0.8 per cent, less than half its trend rate. Their growth is bumping along the bottom.
I have previously argued that China has bucked the pattern of below-trend growth. This is surprising, since the country was widely expected to be among the major casualties from the trade wars.
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