Housing sales in China will peak this year and then begin a long-term decline, an inflection point that will drag on growth in the construction-heavy economy and hit global commodity demand, according to economists.
China’s economy has reduced its dependence on property in recent years, but construction remains a crucial growth pillar, employing 27m workers and fuelling demand for steel, copper and cement. Growth of housing sales has also been remarkably consistent, with only two annual declines since data began in 1992.
But the paring back of a government subsidy programme that provided about Rmb2tn ($300bn) in cash support to homebuyers since 2014 is adding to structural factors weighing on the market.
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