A few weeks ago, the Fulcrum nowcasts identified a sudden slowdown in economic activity in the eurozone, Japan and the UK. At the time, the soft patch seemed to be focused mainly on the eurozone, where extreme cold weather might have been partly responsible. With the US and China showing no signs of weakness, the slowdown was still a fairly localised phenomenon.
More recently, however, there have been three main developments that suggest this assessment may need to be changed.
First, the rebound in activity in the eurozone since the weather improved has been very limited, indicating that at least part of the soft patch may have more fundamental causes.
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