Favourable global economic prospects, particularly strong momentum in the euro area and in emerging markets led by China and India, continue to serve as a strong foundation for global financial stability.” This statement opened the International Monetary Fund’s April 2007 Global Financial Stability Report. Since this benign view was published on the eve of the most devastating financial crisis in nearly eight decades, it has to be viewed, in hindsight, as a spectacular misjudgment. The fund is determined not to be caught out again. The question is whether the concerns it pours forth in its latest Global Financial Stability Report are well judged or whether it is crying wolf. As important, what might be the implications, especially for policy, of its worries?
“良好的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景，特別是歐元區(qū)與以中國(guó)和印度為首的新興市場(chǎng)的強(qiáng)勁勢(shì)頭，繼續(xù)為全球金融穩(wěn)定提供強(qiáng)大的基礎(chǔ)?！边@是國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF) 2007年4月發(fā)表的《全球金融穩(wěn)定報(bào)告》(Global Financial Stability Report)的開(kāi)場(chǎng)白。由于這一樂(lè)觀觀點(diǎn)發(fā)表于近80年來(lái)最具毀滅性的金融危機(jī)的前夕，事后它必然被視為一次巨大的誤判。IMF下定決心不再被抓住把柄。問(wèn)題是，IMF在其最新發(fā)表的《全球金融穩(wěn)定報(bào)告》中提出的擔(dān)憂到底是準(zhǔn)確判斷，還是“狼來(lái)了”？同樣重要的是，它的擔(dān)憂可能有什么含義，特別是對(duì)政策而言？